FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ayr · 14:30
Class 6 · 6f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-20 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) leads on 69, 3pts clear of WATER OF LEITH (IRE) — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is ROYAL DUKE — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market is line-ball — it just prefers WATER OF LEITH (IRE) at 26% to our top pick.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)
OR 62 · Daniel Tudhope / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−The top rating in this field (69.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 5
WATER OF LEITH (IRE)
OR 63 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 3.9 · the market rates it a 26% chance
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (66.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoA course winner (1 from 7 here)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE)
OR 60 · Andrew Mullen / Iain Jardine
MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (57.0)Proven over the trip (35 tries, beats market expectation at 1.26)Race-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag
2WATER OF LEITH (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup
3ROYAL DUKEnet +4race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. WATER OF LEITH (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) lacks: proven on the ground.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
20 similar races at AYR, 5.5-6.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 30% won last time out, 20% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
45% 6yo+
25% 4yo
15% 5yo
Last ran
75% within 14d
25% 15-45d
Market
35% 4th+ in the market
25% 2nd favourite
25% favourite
LTO form
50% unplaced last time
30% won last time
20% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · WATER OF LEITH (IRE) is 1/7 on softer ground · MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) is 0/12 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
WATER OF LEITH (IRE) MID 50.1% 99.4 one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) MID 51.4% 96.2 held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
HARLEQUIN BAY MID 50.7% 99.6 one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) MID 50.1% 100.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
COTAI STARLIGHT (IRE) MID 50.1% 100.4 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ROYAL DUKE HELD-UP 50.0% 100.8 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) HELD-UP 50.7% 96.4 held up without the late gear (6th of 7 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 62 · Daniel Tudhope / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, in form; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
62 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.38% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 699thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 5414thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 116thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 624thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)best 70needs 66–692025-08-19 · TFR 41 · 5.07f · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-11 · TFR 65 · 6f · Slow · C52025-10-02 · TFR 70 · 6f · Slow · C52025-10-17 · TFR 69 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C52026-03-13 · TFR 57 · 4.97f · Std · C42026-03-25 · TFR 62 · 6f · Std · C52026-06-20 · TFR 11 · 6f · Soft · C42026-07-06 · TFR 54 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-13 · TFR 69 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C619 Aug 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
In fields of <=74/527.7%1.02/1020.0%1.71
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips7/769.2%1.250/200.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)2/336.1%0.680/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 5/41 · at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.29 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm3rdTrue44.0 +0.0597.7+0.41
6 Jul 26Ayr7fGd/Frm9th—40.6 +0.32101.6+0.25—
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft14thTrue41.5 +0.1699.2+0.39
13 Mar 26Southwell4fStd4thTrue42.7 +0.14100.2+0.21
17 Oct 25Haydock Park6fGd/Sft3rdSlow early38.5 +0.37100.0+0.10
2 Oct 25Chelmsford City6fSlow2ndTrue40.6 +0.69103.5+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.07par2f+1.22fast3f+1.00fast4f+0.46fast5f+0.34slow6f+0.25slow
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
WATER OF LEITH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 6th, 1.1L ahead
ROYAL DUKE · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 5th, 0.6L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARLEQUIN BAY (read through TAYGAR, SPACE BEAR) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, WEE DRESSER) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, TAYGAR, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, THE GAY BLADE) ≈ +0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (69.0)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, headway 2f out, no extra final ½f”
#2 WATER OF LEITH (IRE) MID
DRAW 5 · OR 63 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 3.9 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, proven on the ground; one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 50 tries · below market expectation (0.77)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.4% (one-paced late)
Class Reversion Watch [P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 83 at its peak · running to 66 now
a 17pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
63 — the exact mark it last WON from
it has already won a race from this very mark — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
3rd fastest of 7 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 663rdClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 625thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 665thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 716thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 32 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for WATER OF LEITH (IRE)best 83needs 66–692025-02-04 · TFR 79 · 5f · Slow · C42025-02-20 · TFR 42 · 5f · Slow · C32025-03-04 · TFR 64 · 5f · Slow · C42025-04-13 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C42025-04-19 · TFR 66 · 5f · Good · C42025-05-12 · TFR 79 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-19 · TFR 83 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-29 · TFR 57 · 5f · Soft · C42025-06-21 · TFR 63 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-27 · TFR 75 · 5f · Std · C52025-10-01 · TFR 33 · 5f · Soft · C42025-10-13 · TFR 48 · 5f · Good · C52025-10-27 · TFR 65 · 5f · Slow · C42025-11-01 · TFR 57 · 5f · Slow · C42025-11-07 · TFR 66 · 5f · Slow · C52025-11-18 · TFR 58 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-16 · TFR 63 · 5f · Slow · C62025-12-27 · TFR 65 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-01-19 · TFR 66 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-01-30 · TFR 69 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-01-31 · TFR 64 · 5f · Slow · C52026-02-06 · TFR 64 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-16 · TFR 68 · 6.09f · Std · C42026-02-17 · TFR 69 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-03-05 · TFR 67 · 5f · Std · C52026-03-16 · TFR 73 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-03-27 · TFR 70 · 6f · Std · C52026-04-04 · TFR 54 · 5f · Soft · C42026-04-29 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-04 · TFR 66 · 5.03f · Good · C52026-07-05 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good · C52026-07-13 · TFR 66 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C64 Feb 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1615.6%0.48
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Coming back after within 7 days40/17822.5%1.327/6111.5%0.65
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)6/2920.7%1.481/185.6%0.55
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 4/37 · at Ayr: A/E 1.03 (n272) · with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n734)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm6thTrue43.8 -0.1396.0+0.20
5 Jul 26Ayr5fGood3rdTrue43.5 +0.47101.8+0.05
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGood5thTrue42.7 +0.0898.2+0.10
29 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGood5thFast early41.9 +0.0399.8-0.02
4 Apr 26Musselburgh5fSoft6thTrue38.7 -0.6199.5+0.00
27 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd4thTrue40.1 +0.11101.1+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.84par2f+0.95fast3f+0.76par4f+0.15fast5f+0.04slow6f+0.41very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
ROYAL DUKE · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 0.5L behind
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 3rd, 1.1L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.9L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARLEQUIN BAY (read through TAYGAR, SUGAR BABY) ≈ +5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) (read through HI LORD, GANESHA, THUNDERSTORM KATIE, ORBITAL CHIME) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, TAYGAR, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, INVINCIBLE ANNICE) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (66.0)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway from 2f out, faded final 1f”
#3 MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 60 · Andrew Mullen / Iain Jardine
MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 12pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.26)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.18% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 5.8f · rated 576thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 606thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 508thClass 5 · 5.8f · rated 598thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 56
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE)best 83needs 66–692025-03-16 · TFR 35 · 6f · Soft2025-04-05 · TFR 55 · 7.89f · Good2025-04-12 · TFR 47 · 6f · Good2025-05-05 · TFR 54 · 7f · Good2025-07-18 · TFR 61 · 5f · Good · C62025-07-25 · TFR 33 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-12-16 · TFR 66 · 6f · Slow · C62026-01-13 · TFR 66 · 6f · Slow · C62026-01-28 · TFR 59 · 7f · Slow · C62026-02-24 · TFR 57 · 5f · Slow · C62026-03-14 · TFR 64 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-03-21 · TFR 67 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-04-06 · TFR 60 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-04-28 · TFR 72 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-05-03 · TFR 74 · 5.03f · Good · C62026-05-11 · TFR 56 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-05-18 · TFR 59 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-10 · TFR 50 · 5.03f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-25 · TFR 60 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-09 · TFR 57 · 5.83f · Gd/Frm · C616 Mar 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1191 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, off marks of 60 or below, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips33/3659.0%0.9420/10419.2%1.76
In Class 6-7 company ✦50/35214.2%1.1726/12820.3%1.46
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.996/3417.6%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=735/21216.5%1.155/588.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)6/3318.2%1.771/119.1%0.92
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n188) · with this yard: A/E 1.04 (n729)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.2%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Carlisle5fGd/Frm6thTrue41.1 +0.0998.5+0.00
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm6thTrue42.3 +0.3096.6+0.18
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft6thTrue42.4 +0.1497.0+0.09
18 May 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft8thTrue37.9 -0.2894.4+0.01
11 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood8thFast early41.5 -0.1693.5+0.14
3 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood2ndFast early42.5 -0.4697.0—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34slow2f+0.34slow3f+0.29par4f+0.31par5f+0.32slow6f+0.79par
Timed runs 2026-05-03 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs WATER OF LEITH (IRE) (read through HI LORD, GANESHA, THUNDERSTORM KATIE, ORBITAL CHIME) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ROYAL DUKE (read through GANESHA, SIR BENEDICT, SIXCOR, KING OF THE JUNGLE) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, WEE DRESSER) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, IRIS DANCER, TARLAC, PENNY MOUNTAIN) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (57.0)Proven over the trip (35 tries, beats market expectation at 1.26)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, one paced”
#4 HARLEQUIN BAY MID
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Harry Russell / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
55.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 13.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
55.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
63 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.57% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 4410thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated —3rdClass 4 · 6.1f · rated 522ndClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 712ndClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HARLEQUIN BAYbest 74needs 66–692025-05-16 · TFR 42 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C42025-11-26 · TFR 74 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-19 · TFR 71 · 6f · Std · C52026-02-03 · TFR 52 · 6.09f · Std · C42026-06-16 · TFR 44 · 6f · Good · C516 May 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 380 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7—8/819.9%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)—0/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Harry Russell · last 14 days: 3/13 · at Ayr: A/E 0 (n4) · with this yard: A/E 0.83 (n14)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.18 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
99.6%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Thirsk6fGood11thTrue39.8 -0.4196.9+0.03
21 May 26Haydock Park6fSoft10thTrue36.3 -0.67—+0.51
3 Feb 26Wolverhampton6fStd3rdTrue38.8 +0.00100.7+0.00
19 Dec 25Newcastle6fStd2ndTrue39.6 -0.0499.2+0.04
26 Nov 25Newcastle5fSlow2ndTrue41.5 -0.02104.1+0.33
16 May 25Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm5thTrue41.9 +0.0996.9+0.76
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28par2f+0.33slow3f+0.34par4f+0.50par5f+1.04slow6f+1.64very slow
Timed runs 2025-05-16 to 2026-06-16. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through TAYGAR, SPACE BEAR) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WATER OF LEITH (IRE) (read through TAYGAR, SUGAR BABY) ≈ -5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, weakened over 1f out”
#5 ROYAL DUKE HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 48 · Rhys Elliott / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 15pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
48 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.19)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.75% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 547thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 467thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 473rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 526thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 43
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROYAL DUKEneeds 66–69best 652025-04-02 · TFR 55 · 5f · Good · C62025-04-28 · TFR 47 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-16 · TFR 32 · 5.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-07 · TFR 35 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-01 · TFR 36 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-28 · TFR 65 · 5f · Good · C62025-08-09 · TFR 64 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-27 · TFR 65 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-18 · TFR 36 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-13 · TFR 59 · 5f · Good · C52025-10-17 · TFR 50 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-11-05 · TFR 38 · 5f · Soft · C62026-05-05 · TFR 53 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-21 · TFR 43 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-06 · TFR 52 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-20 · TFR 47 · 5f · Soft · C62026-07-06 · TFR 46 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-13 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62 Apr 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
In fields of <=74/527.7%1.02/1020.0%1.71
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips7/769.2%1.250/200.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)2/336.1%0.680/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~66.0 the race demands
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 3/24 · at Ayr: A/E 0.76 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0.27 (n59)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.40s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.89 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm5thTrue44.2 +0.2796.4+0.33
6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm7th—41.4 -0.2699.5+0.34—
20 Jun 26Ayr5fSoft7thTrue41.5 +0.03101.6+0.20
6 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGood3rdTrue—101.6—
21 May 26Musselburgh5fGood6thTrue41.1 +0.02104.8+0.87
5 May 26Ayr5fGd/Frm7thTrue42.0 +0.19100.7+0.24
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.98par2f+1.00fast3f+0.74fast4f+0.19fast5f+0.20slow6f+0.34very slow
Timed runs 2026-05-05 to 2026-07-13. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
WATER OF LEITH (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.5L ahead
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 3rd, 0.6L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.0L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs COTAI STARLIGHT (IRE) (read through CLASSY CLARETS, RAMON DI LORIA) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) (read through GANESHA, SIR BENEDICT, SIXCOR, KING OF THE JUNGLE) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) (read through WEE MARY, DOON THE GLEN, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, COLOUR CODE) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (48 today vs 57)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 10 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway over 1f out, no extra final 1f”
#6 SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 45 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET 9.4 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
48.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 20.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
48.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 54
Official mark (OR)
45 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 96.38% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 437thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated —5thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 503rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 524thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 48
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE)needs 66–69best 542025-05-01 · TFR 40 · 6f · Good · C52025-06-06 · TFR 37 · 7f · Good · C52025-06-26 · TFR 39 · 9.16f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-07 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C62025-07-21 · TFR 48 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62026-05-05 · TFR 52 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-20 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-05 · TFR 43 · 7.23f · Good · C61 May 255 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15514.2%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1615.6%0.48
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 54 is below the ~66.0 the race demands
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 0/16 · at Ayr: A/E 1.24 (n66) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n303)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.39 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.36s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
96.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 7
7.65 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr7fGood7thFast early39.3 -0.7695.9+0.00
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Sft7thFast early41.9 -0.8789.3+0.38
20 May 26Ayr6fGd/Frm5thTrue42.5 +0.1896.1+0.34
5 May 26Ayr6fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.5 -0.0998.3+0.23
21 Jul 25Ayr5fGd/Sft4thTrue40.2 -0.21100.4+0.50
7 Jul 25Ayr6fGd/Sft5thTrue39.7 -0.5998.2+0.73
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30fast2f+0.60fast3f+0.52fast4f+0.44par5f+0.45very slow6f+0.66very slow7f+1.04very slow
Timed runs 2025-07-07 to 2026-07-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs COTAI STARLIGHT (IRE) (read through CLASSY CLARETS, RAMON DI LORIA, MONHAMMER) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ROYAL DUKE (read through WEE MARY, DOON THE GLEN, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, COLOUR CODE) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WATER OF LEITH (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, TAYGAR, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, INVINCIBLE ANNICE) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through DOON THE GLEN, TAYGAR, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, THE GAY BLADE) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“off pace, outpaced, no response over 1f out”
#7 COTAI STARLIGHT (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 55 · Jason Hart / Katie Scott
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
46 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 23pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
46 · ranked #7 here · career best 54
Official mark (OR)
55 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.41% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 55thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 393rdClass 4 · 6.1f · rated 536thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COTAI STARLIGHT (IRE)needs 66–69best 542025-09-19 · TFR 54 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-09 · TFR 53 · 6.07f · Std · C42026-04-22 · TFR 39 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-30 · TFR 5 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C619 Sep 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Katie Scott · 494 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, with their 4yo+s
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips17/1918.9%0.824/527.7%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.880/440.0%0.0
In fields of <=78/6312.7%0.920/160.0%0.0
On turf ✦19/2328.2%0.774/824.9%0.68
Coming back after 15 to 45 days13/1628.0%0.843/535.7%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~66.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 11/47 · at Ayr: A/E 0.95 (n154) · with this yard: A/E 0.6 (n100)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 7
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGd/Frm8thFast early39.0 -0.8893.1+0.25
22 Apr 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm5thSlow early38.9 +0.09103.2+0.15
9 Apr 26Southwell6fStd3rdTrue40.2 +0.09107.2+0.00
19 Sep 25Newcastle6fSlow6thTrue39.6 +0.1498.2+0.42
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.48par2f+0.76fast3f+1.09fast4f+1.21par5f+1.22slow6f+1.59very slow7f+3.50very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-19 to 2026-06-30. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs ROYAL DUKE (read through CLASSY CLARETS, RAMON DI LORIA) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUMMERSTORMS DREAM (IRE) (read through CLASSY CLARETS, RAMON DI LORIA, MONHAMMER) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, lost place 2f out”