FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ayr · 15:00
Class 6 · 7.23f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-20 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (96% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) leads on 76, 8pts clear of SOUL WARRIOR (IRE) — proven on the ground. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is YAASER (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) the 57% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)
OR 65 · Daniel Tudhope / Michael Dods
MARKET 1.75 · the market rates it a 57% chance
76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−The top rating in this field (76.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoA course winner (1 from 1 here)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 5
SOUL WARRIOR (IRE)
OR 59 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler
MARKET 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance
68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (68.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.01x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
RAMON DI LORIA (IRE)
OR 55 · Greg Fairley / Ewan Whillans
MARKET 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (65.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoA course winner (2 from 10 here)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark
2RAMON DI LORIA (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard hot
3YAASER (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) carries habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
26 similar races at AYR, 6.7-7.7f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (96% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 35% won last time out, 27% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
54% 4yo
23% 6yo+
15% 5yo
Last ran
65% within 14d
31% 15-45d
4% 46-90d
Market
35% 4th+ in the market
35% favourite
23% 2nd favourite
LTO form
38% unplaced last time
35% won last time
27% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · SOUL WARRIOR (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground · RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) is 0/11 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) MID 51.1% 98.6 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
YAASER (IRE) HELD-UP 49.1% 102.0 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) MID 49.5% 100.2 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SOUL WARRIOR (IRE) HELD-UP 50.9% 97.8 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SUPREME DANCER (IRE) MID 50.3% 98.4 held up without the late gear (5th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
LANARRA (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 100.4 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 3 · OR 65 · Daniel Tudhope / Michael Dods
MARKET 1.75 · the market rates it a 57% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 8pts clear of the next, proven on the ground; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 15 tries · below market expectation (0.75)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.3s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.56% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 765thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 618thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 558thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 476thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 49
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)best 89needs 67–752025-03-30 · TFR 71 · 7.03f · Good · C42025-05-03 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C42025-05-17 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 82 · 4.97f · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-06-26 · TFR 65 · 5.03f · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-07-19 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-06 · TFR 48 · 6f · Good · C42025-08-28 · TFR 76 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-09-21 · TFR 68 · 4.97f · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-10-20 · TFR 49 · 6.09f · Slow · C52026-05-18 · TFR 47 · 5f · Good · C5 · off-trip2026-06-05 · TFR 55 · 6f · Good · C62026-07-01 · TFR 61 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-13 · TFR 76 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C630 Mar 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips35/3579.8%0.9913/8914.6%1.59
Above their last winning mark ✦31/27711.2%1.0212/7715.6%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=728/14918.8%1.134/478.5%0.63
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/28010.4%0.886/797.6%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)4/508.0%0.51/812.5%0.54
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 5/41 · at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 2.14 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.28s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 6
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr7fGd/Frm1stTrue42.2 +0.24107.1+0.49
1 Jul 26Thirsk7fGd/Frm5th—40.2 -0.01103.8+0.39—
5 Jun 26Thirsk6fGood8thFast early42.0 +0.6292.2+0.28
18 May 26Carlisle5fGood8thTrue39.8 +0.2594.8+0.36
20 Oct 25Wolverhampton6fSlow6thTrue42.8 +0.0095.4+0.05
21 Sep 25Southwell4fStd9thTrue42.1 -0.0898.1+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.60slow2f+0.45slow3f+0.45slow4f+0.57par5f+0.23fast6fledfast7fledfast
Timed runs 2025-09-21 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jul 26 · 7.2f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 2.25L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs YAASER (IRE) (read through STOCKPYLE, SIR GARFIELD, GRABAJABBA, DOLCE COURAGE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 60)The top rating in this field (76.0)Improving fast — last run rated 76, 12pts above his recent average of 64.0Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, switched soon after start, effort from 2f out, led over 1f out, went clear final 1f, easily”
#2 SOUL WARRIOR (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 59 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler
MARKET 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 8pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
68.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.67)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.77% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 6810thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 458thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated —1stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 638thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 56
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SOUL WARRIOR (IRE)best 68needs 67–752025-08-10 · TFR 37 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-26 · TFR 41 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-08 · TFR 56 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-09-24 · TFR 63 · 5.99f · Good · C52026-06-14 · TFR 45 · 6.01f · Good · C62026-07-06 · TFR 68 · 6f · Good · C610 Aug 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Nigel Tinkler · 922 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦32/27911.5%1.179/999.1%1.19
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1756.3%0.694/3910.3%1.18
In fields of <=719/11616.4%1.254/3312.1%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark21/16912.4%1.093/674.5%0.44
At this time of year (Q3)24/3008.0%0.93/358.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)1/812.5%0.741/250.0%4.7
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Ayr: A/E 2.01 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n346)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 6
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon6fGood3rdTrue41.6 -0.1297.2—
14 Jun 26Doncaster6fGood10thTrue42.1 +0.38101.2+0.23
21 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd8thTrue40.9 +0.3691.0+0.02
24 Sep 25Redcar5fGood1stTrue41.7 +0.0697.9+0.22
8 Sep 25Newcastle5fSlow8thTrue39.6 +0.07100.0+0.17
26 Aug 25Ripon5fGd/Frm8thTrue42.3 +0.0299.3+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.35fast2f+0.49par3f+0.48par4f+0.52par5f+0.65slow6f+0.33slow
Timed runs 2025-08-26 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 56)Rated #2 in this field (68.0)Improving fast — last run rated 68, 9pts above his recent average of 58.7Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 14 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.01x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, headway over 2f out, short of room over 1f out, no further impression”
#3 RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) MID
DRAW 4 · OR 55 · Greg Fairley / Ewan Whillans
MARKET 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 11pts off the top, a yard in form; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
55 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 41 tries · in line with the market (0.98)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.23% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 653rdClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 623rdClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 646thClass 6 · 5.8f · rated 513rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 34 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RAMON DI LORIA (IRE)best 81needs 67–752025-01-31 · TFR 51 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-02-12 · TFR 47 · 6.07f · Slow · C52025-03-03 · TFR 64 · 6.09f · Std/Slow · C62025-03-12 · TFR 61 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-04-02 · TFR 61 · 7.07f · Good · C62025-04-28 · TFR 65 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-02 · TFR 43 · 7.07f · Good · C52025-05-24 · TFR 64 · 5.96f · Good · C52025-06-05 · TFR 64 · 6.03f · Good · C52025-06-26 · TFR 49 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-05 · TFR 55 · 5.83f · Heavy · C52025-07-14 · TFR 49 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-11 · TFR 39 · 6f · Good · C62025-09-01 · TFR 59 · 5f · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-09-09 · TFR 54 · 5f · Soft · C6 · off-trip2025-09-26 · TFR 60 · 5f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-10-27 · TFR 55 · 5f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-11-07 · TFR 50 · 6f · Slow · C52025-11-18 · TFR 58 · 6f · Slow · C62025-12-09 · TFR 58 · 5f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-12-19 · TFR 50 · 5f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-01-04 · TFR 58 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-01-10 · TFR 59 · 6f · Std · C62026-01-20 · TFR 42 · 6f · Std · C62026-02-09 · TFR 58 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-02-23 · TFR 62 · 7.16f · Slow · C62026-03-13 · TFR 63 · 7.16f · Std · C62026-03-17 · TFR 62 · 7.16f · Std · C62026-03-26 · TFR 54 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-05-30 · TFR 52 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-15 · TFR 51 · 5.83f · Good · C62026-06-30 · TFR 64 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-05 · TFR 62 · 7.23f · Good · C62026-07-13 · TFR 65 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C631 Jan 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ewan Whillans · 353 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/918.8%0.94/1625.0%2.05
At Ayr6/4613.0%1.062/1612.5%1.7
On turf11/1348.2%0.756/4613.0%1.61
In Class 6-7 company ✦20/18111.0%1.036/5311.3%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after within 7 days4/1822.2%1.520/70.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/978.2%0.653/378.1%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Greg Fairley · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Ayr: A/E 0 (n16) · with this yard: A/E 2.33 (n37)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr7fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.8 -0.12105.2+0.00
5 Jul 26Ayr7fGood3rdFast early40.9 +0.8298.0+0.08
30 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGd/Frm3rdFast early40.1 +0.20100.3+0.22
15 Jun 26Carlisle5fGood6thTrue41.4 +0.2795.0+0.06
30 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.0 -0.03100.0+0.02
26 Mar 26Southwell6fStd6thTrue40.1 +0.22102.9+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.21slow2f+0.22slow3f+0.29slow4f+0.33par5f+0.07fast6f+0.16fast7f+0.35fast
Timed runs 2026-03-26 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Jul 26 · 7.2f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 2.25L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs YAASER (IRE) (read through COCONUT BAY, MYSTERYOFTHESANDS, ROCK MELODY, JENNI) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SUPREME DANCER (IRE) (read through LOPE Y LINDA, WILLOWINGHURN, BOBBYS PRIDE, SUNLIT SEA) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (65.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 10 here)
LTO comment
“tracked pace, led briefly over 1f out, kept on, no match for winner”
#4 YAASER (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 59 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 12pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 49 tries · below market expectation (0.84)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.04% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 5 · 6.9f · rated 649thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 505thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 647thClass 5 · 8.3f · rated 579thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 28
Career sheet · last 18 months · 29 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for YAASER (IRE)best 86needs 67–752025-04-21 · TFR 78 · 8f · Gd/Frm · C32025-04-28 · TFR 80 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-16 · TFR 78 · 7f · Good · C42025-05-18 · TFR 82 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-13 · TFR 80 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-01 · TFR 84 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-21 · TFR 82 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-25 · TFR 76 · 7f · Good · C42025-07-26 · TFR 86 · 7.87f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-08 · TFR 84 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-10 · TFR 83 · 8.17f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-18 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-28 · TFR 79 · 7.06f · Std · C42025-09-19 · TFR 68 · 6f · Soft · C22025-09-20 · TFR 54 · 7.23f · Soft · C42025-10-10 · TFR 71 · 7f · Good · C42025-10-18 · TFR 67 · 7.03f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-27 · TFR 69 · 7.06f · Slow · C42025-11-05 · TFR 67 · 7.07f · Soft · C32025-11-27 · TFR 76 · 8.02f · Slow · C52025-12-13 · TFR 76 · 7.06f · Slow · C52025-12-28 · TFR 44 · 6.07f · Std · C52025-12-29 · TFR 65 · 7.06f · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 49 · 6f · Std · C52026-02-06 · TFR 28 · 7.06f · Std · C52026-05-27 · TFR 57 · 8.31f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-06 · TFR 64 · 7.07f · Good · C42026-06-22 · TFR 50 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-09 · TFR 64 · 6.89f · Gd/Frm · C521 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Coming back after 8 to 14 days66/31421.0%1.7112/12010.0%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 4/37 · at Ayr: A/E 1.03 (n272) · with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n734)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+1.00s
Slow away in 6 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
102.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Carlisle6fGd/Frm5thTrue39.4 +0.27102.7+0.80
22 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGd/Frm9thTrue39.0 -0.42100.7+1.27
6 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGood5thTrue40.8 +0.63103.4+1.45
27 May 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Frm7thSlow early40.2 +0.00109.4+1.08
6 Feb 26Newcastle7fStd9thTrue41.0 +0.6193.0+0.77
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd9thTrue41.0 +0.15103.0+0.62
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.14very slow2f+1.32very slow3f+1.19par4f+1.10par5f+1.00par6f+0.72fast7f+0.61fast
Timed runs 2026-01-16 to 2026-07-09. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) (read through COCONUT BAY, MYSTERYOFTHESANDS, ROCK MELODY, JENNI) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through STOCKPYLE, SIR GARFIELD, GRABAJABBA, DOLCE COURAGE) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
10lb below his last winning mark (59 today vs 69)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsLost roughly 3.6 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 10 here)
LTO comment
“dropped out, ridden over 1f out, some late headway”
#5 SUPREME DANCER (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 57 · Warren Fentiman / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 20pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.4% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 562ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 647thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 435thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 355thClass 6 · 8.2f · rated 53
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SUPREME DANCER (IRE)needs 67–75best 642025-04-14 · TFR 35 · 5.01f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-05-03 · TFR 52 · 5f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-05-30 · TFR 56 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C2 · off-trip2025-07-08 · TFR 43 · 6f · Good · C62025-07-12 · TFR 17 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-02 · TFR 40 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-14 · TFR 58 · 7.44f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-30 · TFR 55 · 7.44f · Good · C62025-09-14 · TFR 58 · 8.01f · Good · C62025-10-14 · TFR 53 · 8.24f · Gd/Sft · C62025-11-01 · TFR 35 · 8.02f · Slow · C62025-11-22 · TFR 43 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-05-21 · TFR 64 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-06-15 · TFR 56 · 8f · Gd/Frm · C614 Apr 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 380 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7—8/819.9%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)—0/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 66 is below the ~67.0 the race demands
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/15 · at Ayr: A/E 0 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 1.58 (n51)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 6
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Wetherby8fGd/Frm8thFast early39.8 +0.0095.9+0.06
21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood2nd—41.0 +0.0095.4+0.00
22 Nov 25Wolverhampton6fSlow7thTrue39.7 -0.08100.2+0.16
1 Nov 25Newcastle8fSlow5thTrue38.2 +0.0097.0+0.00
14 Oct 25Leicester8fGd/Sft5thTrue37.8 +0.28101.5+0.38
14 Sep 25Musselburgh8fGood2ndTrue37.9 +0.49100.3+0.13
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery fast2fledfast3fledvery fast4fledfast5fledslow6fledslow7f+0.17very slow1m+0.70very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-14 to 2026-06-15. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
LANARRA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 8f · Good — finished 2nd vs 6th, 12.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+12.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) (read through LOPE Y LINDA, WILLOWINGHURN, BOBBYS PRIDE, SUNLIT SEA) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed over 1f out, weakened entering final 1f”
#6 LANARRA (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 49 · Sam James / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 6−
54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 22pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 56
Official mark (OR)
49 · last won off 46
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.63)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.38% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5.8f · rated 542ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 561stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 516thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 187thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 35
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LANARRA (IRE)needs 67–75best 562025-07-28 · TFR 31 · 5.5f · Good · C52025-08-09 · TFR 44 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-27 · TFR 35 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-14 · TFR 18 · 8.01f · Good · C62025-10-04 · TFR 51 · 6f · Slow · C62026-05-21 · TFR 56 · 5.96f · Good · C62026-06-08 · TFR 54 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C628 Jul 258 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
In fields of <=74/527.7%1.02/1020.0%1.71
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips4/765.3%1.230/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/1049.6%1.520/240.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/6013.3%1.270/120.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 55 is below the ~67.0 the race demands
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 5/20 · at Ayr: A/E 0.51 (n39) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.21 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.06 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft3rdTrue37.7 +0.00101.0+0.05
21 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGood2nd—40.2 +0.22106.0+0.54
4 Oct 25Newcastle6fSlow1stTrue39.3 -0.0199.8-0.09
14 Sep 25Musselburgh8fGood6thTrue37.3 -0.1495.6-0.03
27 Aug 25Musselburgh7fGd/Frm7thTrue37.5 -0.91100.8+0.06
9 Aug 25Ayr6fGd/Frm7thTrue37.7 -0.4399.1+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.36slow2f+0.50very slow3f+0.48par4f+0.43fast5f+0.40fast6f+0.20par
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-06-08. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
SUPREME DANCER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 8f · Good — finished 6th vs 2nd, 12.5L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (49 today vs 46)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, effort over 1f out, edged right, stayed on final 1f”