FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ayr · 15:30
Class 3 · 6f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-20 · 9 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here spend about 50% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) leads on 96, 6pts clear of LORD ROXBY (IRE) — prominent in the betting. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is DANDY MAGIC (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making JORDAN ELECTRICS the 24% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)
OR 89 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−The top rating in this field (96.0)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runsHistorically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
LORD ROXBY (IRE)
OR 83 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
90 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (90)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.28)Jockey goes well at this track (2.01x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
JORDAN ELECTRICS
OR 82 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 4.1 · the market rates it a 24% chance
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−14lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 96)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (88.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1JORDAN ELECTRICSnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going − burns early and empties
2LORD ROXBY (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3ORIENTAL PRINCEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) carries habitually slow from the stalls. JORDAN ELECTRICS is the one to beat it — an edge VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground · LORD ROXBY (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · JORDAN ELECTRICS is 2/7 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) HELD-UP 49.8% 99.5 one-paced late — 4th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
LORD ROXBY (IRE) MID 51.0% 98.8 one-paced late — 9th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GENTLE GEORGE MID 50.5% 99.0 one-paced late — 6th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
JORDAN ELECTRICS PROMINENT 51.1% 99.2 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
AZURE ZAIN (FR) MID 51.1% 99.0 one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
CLONMACASH MID 49.2% 99.6 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
ORIENTAL PRINCE PROMINENT 50.6% 98.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
DANDY MAGIC (IRE) HELD-UP 49.5% 102.3 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
THE CALTONIAN HELD-UP 49.6% 100.8 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
JORDAN ELECTRICSPROMINENTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.22s off the best)
ORIENTAL PRINCEPROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 89 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, prominent in the betting; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
96.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
89 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.66)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.45% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 3 · 6.0f · rated 9613thClass 2 · 7.0f · rated 631stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 957thClass 3 · 7.0f · rated 824thClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 90
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)best 96needs 90–962025-04-08 · TFR 95 · 6f · Good · C52025-06-14 · TFR 90 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-05 · TFR 82 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-29 · TFR 95 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 63 · 7.01f · Gd/Sft · C22026-07-01 · TFR 96 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C38 Apr 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2019 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1455.5%0.62
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/679.0%0.71
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1118/2218.1%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)12/8713.8%0.970/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 5/41 · at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n824)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.27s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 9
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.2 +0.27100.9+0.38
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft13thFast early41.2 +0.5994.8+0.68
29 Apr 26Pontefract6fGood1stTrue39.2 +0.15100.2+0.01
5 Sep 25Ascot7fGd/Sft7thTrue37.7 +0.13100.5+0.05
14 Jun 25York6fGd/Frm4thTrue42.0 -0.5397.0+0.48
14 Oct 24Wolverhampton5fStandard1stTrue41.6 -0.02103.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.51slow2f+0.51slow3f+0.48par4f+0.33par5f+0.28par6f+0.27fast
Timed runs 2024-10-14 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.7L ahead on today's terms · confirms
1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.05L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs AZURE ZAIN (FR) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, MISTER SOX, JUAN LES PINS, AMERICAN STYLE) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ORIENTAL PRINCE (read through MISTER SOX, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ALPHA MAGIC, BERGERAC) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through ALPHA MAGIC, MISTER SOX, BERGERAC, INDIAN RUN) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE CALTONIAN (read through ALPHA MAGIC, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, STRONG WARRIOR, TUCO SALAMANCA) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayThe top rating in this field (96.0)Improving fast — last run rated 96, 11pts above his recent average of 84.7Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runsLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, headway over 2f out, forced to switch over 1f out, stayed on”
#2 LORD ROXBY (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 83 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
90 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
90 · ranked #2 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.28)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.75% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 3 · 6.0f · rated 884thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 891stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 9313thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 649thClass 4 · 7.4f · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LORD ROXBY (IRE)best 93needs 90–962025-04-17 · TFR 81 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-17 · TFR 76 · 6.01f · Firm · C42025-05-28 · TFR 90 · 6.03f · Good · C42025-06-15 · TFR 85 · 6.03f · Gd/Sft · C42025-06-28 · TFR 80 · 6f · Good · C42025-07-12 · TFR 79 · 6.08f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-23 · TFR 85 · 7f · Good · C42025-08-10 · TFR 87 · 6f · Firm · C42025-09-01 · TFR 86 · 5.83f · Good · C42025-09-20 · TFR 66 · 8f · Soft · C4 · off-trip2025-10-16 · TFR 73 · 7f · Slow · C42025-11-01 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C42026-04-23 · TFR 72 · 7.44f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-09 · TFR 64 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-23 · TFR 93 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 89 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-01 · TFR 88 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C317 Apr 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Nigel Tinkler · 922 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company10/8711.5%2.10/250.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark21/16912.4%1.093/674.5%0.44
In fields of 8-11 ✦28/3677.6%0.885/1054.8%0.59
At this time of year (Q3)24/3008.0%0.93/358.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)1/812.5%0.741/250.0%4.7
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90 demand
The rider
Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Ayr: A/E 2.01 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n346)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 9
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm5thTrue42.0 +0.09100.0+0.00
13 Jun 26York6fGood4thTrue42.4 +0.1296.3+0.12
23 May 26York6fGood1stTrue43.3 +0.1795.8+0.12
9 May 26Ascot6fGd/Frm13th—40.9 -0.33102.3+0.18—
23 Apr 26Beverley7fGd/Frm9thTrue39.0 +0.19101.0+0.46
1 Nov 25Newmarket6fGood2ndTrue41.0 +0.0697.1+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.31slow2f+0.38slow3f+0.32par4f+0.21par5f+0.30par6f+0.41par
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-07-01. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
AZURE ZAIN (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 8.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 13th vs 1st, 8.25L behind
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.7L behind on today's terms · reverses
1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.05L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-4.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ORIENTAL PRINCE (read through ORNE, ROUSING ENCORE, BERGERAC, VEYDARI) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CLONMACASH (read through SECRET GUEST, MANILA SCOUSE, MIRACULOUS, INTERVENTION) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DANDY MAGIC (IRE) (read through ROUSING ENCORE, MAE AMOR, MANILA SCOUSE, WOVEN) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE CALTONIAN (read through ROUSING ENCORE, MANILA SCOUSE, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, LETHAL NYMPH) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (83 today vs 78)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (90)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.28)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 14 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.01x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, effort from halfway, not quicken”
#3 JORDAN ELECTRICS PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 82 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 4.1 · the market rates it a 24% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 109
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 96
Record at today's distance
10 wins from 37 tries · beats market expectation (2.32)
Days since last run
3
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.24% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 888thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 844thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 805thClass 3 · 5.8f · rated 869thClass 3 · 5.0f · rated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for JORDAN ELECTRICSbest 109needs 90–962025-07-26 · TFR 88 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-02 · TFR 101 · 6f · Good · C22025-08-20 · TFR 76 · 5.4f · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 103 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-13 · TFR 98 · 5.65f · Good · C22025-09-20 · TFR 92 · 6f · Soft · C22025-10-04 · TFR 94 · 5f · Soft · C22025-10-11 · TFR 73 · 6f · Good · C22026-04-04 · TFR 43 · 5f · Soft · C22026-04-16 · TFR 97 · 7f · Good · C32026-05-09 · TFR 93 · 7f · Good · C22026-05-17 · TFR 78 · 5.03f · Good · C32026-05-30 · TFR 86 · 5.83f · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-17 · TFR 80 · 5.03f · Gd/Sft · C42026-07-06 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-17 · TFR 88 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C226 Jul 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1615.6%0.48
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.223/605.0%0.6
Coming back after within 7 days40/17822.5%1.327/6111.5%0.65
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 109 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 4/37 · at Ayr: A/E 1.03 (n272) · with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n734)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 9
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm3rd—42.0 -0.35102.0+0.22—
6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm8th—42.9 +0.0599.4+0.11—
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft4thTrue43.5 -0.0197.8+0.31
30 May 26Carlisle5fGd/Frm5thTrue39.5 -0.58103.1+0.14
17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood9thTrue44.1 -0.0596.4+0.33
9 May 26Ascot7fGood6thTrue39.8 -0.4596.8—
Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-07-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
THE CALTONIAN · 2 meetings≈ 3.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 12th, 1.4L ahead
DANDY MAGIC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 4th, 2.15L behind
Read through a common rival
vs ORIENTAL PRINCE (read through LORD BERTIE, CLASSY AL, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CLONMACASH (read through MANILA SCOUSE, GO ATHLETICO, CUBAN GREY) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs AZURE ZAIN (FR) (read through ROUSING ENCORE, LORD BERTIE, MONTEZUMA, CLASSY AL) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through ALPHA MAGIC, MISTER SOX, BERGERAC, INDIAN RUN) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
14lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 96)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (88.0)Proven over the trip (37 tries, beats market expectation at 2.32)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 3 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 6 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, effort over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#4 CLONMACASH MID
DRAW 1 · OR 73 · Clifford Lee / Adrian McGuinness, Ireland
MARKET 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 16pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 43 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.64% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass · 6.7f · rated 804thClass · 6.0f · rated 785thClass · 5.0f · rated 733rdClass · 5.8f · rated 805thClass · 5.0f · rated 69
Career sheet · last 18 months · 37 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CLONMACASHneeds 90–96best 882025-01-29 · TFR 73 · 7f · Slow · C52025-01-31 · TFR 73 · 7f · Slow · C52025-02-12 · TFR 74 · 6f · Slow · C52025-02-21 · TFR 81 · 7f · Slow · C52025-02-28 · TFR 81 · 7f · Slow2025-03-16 · TFR 67 · 6f · Soft2025-03-21 · TFR 79 · 7f · Slow2025-04-04 · TFR 82 · 6f · Slow2025-04-12 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good2025-05-05 · TFR 58 · 7f · Good2025-05-30 · TFR 51 · 7f · Gd/Sft2025-06-12 · TFR 68 · 7.21f · Soft2025-06-19 · TFR 64 · 7.15f · Gd/Frm2025-07-09 · TFR 70 · 7f · Good2025-07-17 · TFR 65 · 7.23f · Good2025-07-23 · TFR 70 · 5.93f · Good2025-08-09 · TFR 70 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-11 · TFR 70 · 7.23f · Good · C62025-08-23 · TFR 77 · 5f · Good2025-09-04 · TFR 80 · 6f · Std2025-11-28 · TFR 60 · 6f · Slow2025-12-12 · TFR 70 · 6f · Slow · C62025-12-19 · TFR 81 · 7f · Std2026-01-09 · TFR 73 · 7f · Std2026-01-16 · TFR 86 · 7f · Std2026-02-06 · TFR 88 · 5f · Slow2026-02-20 · TFR 76 · 6f · Slow2026-03-06 · TFR 75 · 7f · Slow2026-03-13 · TFR 72 · 5f · Std2026-03-20 · TFR 82 · 6f · Std2026-04-01 · TFR 86 · 6f · Std2026-05-08 · TFR 65 · 6.08f · Good · C42026-05-26 · TFR 69 · 5f · Std2026-06-07 · TFR 80 · 5.82f · Good2026-06-19 · TFR 73 · 5f · Soft2026-06-27 · TFR 78 · 6f · Gd/Frm2026-07-11 · TFR 80 · 6.68f · Good29 Jan 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian McGuinness, Ireland · 1144 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days17/2486.9%0.912/8015.0%1.52
In fields of 8-1121/2299.2%1.09/6713.4%1.5
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)26/2879.1%1.233/407.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)0/90.0%0.01/1100.0%5.61
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/300.0%0.01/156.7%1.19
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~90 the race demands
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Ayr: A/E 0.93 (n71)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
99.6%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 9
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 May 26Chester6fGood9thTrue41.1 -0.2093.6+0.06
11 Aug 25Ayr7fGood2ndTrue38.9 -0.23103.1+0.60
9 Aug 25Ayr6fGd/Frm4thSlow early39.2 +0.09102.2+0.24
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.14very fast2f+0.34fast3f+0.36par4f+0.44par5f+0.74very slow6f+1.35very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-05-08. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs LORD ROXBY (IRE) (read through SECRET GUEST, MANILA SCOUSE, MIRACULOUS, INTERVENTION) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DANDY MAGIC (IRE) (read through MANILA SCOUSE, THE GOOD BISCUIT, THUNDERSTORM KATIE, ISHE WORTH AGAMBLE) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through MANILA SCOUSE, GO ATHLETICO, CUBAN GREY) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE CALTONIAN (read through MANILA SCOUSE, MIRACULOUS, ROSENPUR, SECRET GUEST) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (73 today vs 77)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“steadied start, pushed along entering straight, every chance approaching final 1f, not sustain effort”
#5 GENTLE GEORGE MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 87 · Jason Hart / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
79.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 16.7pts off the top, dropping in class; one-paced late — 6th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
79.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
87 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (9.9)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.98% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 2 · 7.9f · rated 7718thClass 2 · 5.0f · rated 7310thClass 2 · 7.6f · rated 886thClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 911stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 91
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GENTLE GEORGEbest 91needs 90–962025-06-30 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-12 · TFR 82 · 5.05f · Soft · C42025-09-26 · TFR 91 · 6f · Good · C42025-10-18 · TFR 91 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-05-07 · TFR 88 · 7.58f · Good · C22026-06-19 · TFR 73 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-11 · TFR 77 · 7.87f · Gd/Frm · C230 Jun 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days5/529.6%1.152/1118.2%2.13
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips7/769.2%1.250/200.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)—0/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90 demand
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 11/47 · at Ayr: A/E 0.95 (n154) · with this yard: A/E 1.77 (n7) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.46 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 9
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York7fGd/Frm9thTrue39.2 -0.5499.4+0.42
19 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm18thTrue42.3 -0.29100.2+0.34
7 May 26Chester7fGood10thTrue39.9 -0.1697.9+0.22
18 Oct 25Ascot6fGd/Frm6thTrue39.7 -0.5298.0+0.00
26 Sep 25Haydock Park6fGood1stTrue39.3 -0.18101.3+0.00
12 Sep 25Sandown Park5fSoft1stFast early38.0 -1.0697.1+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.49slow2f+0.92slow3f+0.97par4f+0.66fast5f+0.33par6f+0.60slow7f+1.19very slow1m+1.86slow
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last timeBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-6 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Cut 5lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, rear, ridden 2f out, closed up only late”
#6 THE CALTONIAN HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 70 · Andrew Mullen / Linda Perratt
MARKET 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
79 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 17pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
79 · ranked #6 here · career best 99
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 34 tries · in line with the market (1.03)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.83% (holds late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
12thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 685thClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 9710thClass 3 · 6.0f · rated 7213thClass 3 · 5.0f · rated 611stClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 99
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for THE CALTONIANbest 99needs 90–962025-02-20 · TFR 98 · 5f · Slow · C32025-04-18 · TFR 78 · 6f · Std · C22025-07-07 · TFR 68 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-07-21 · TFR 70 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-08-14 · TFR 61 · 5.1f · Firm · C42025-08-18 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-30 · TFR 66 · 7.06f · Std · C32025-11-17 · TFR 95 · 6f · Slow · C32025-12-09 · TFR 91 · 5f · Slow · C32026-01-16 · TFR 99 · 6f · Std · C22026-02-06 · TFR 61 · 5f · Std · C32026-04-13 · TFR 72 · 6f · Std · C32026-06-27 · TFR 97 · 6f · Slow · C22026-07-06 · TFR 68 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C420 Feb 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Linda Perratt · 599 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark4/775.2%0.85/4810.4%1.5
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1565.8%0.940/170.0%0.0
On turf10/2414.1%0.761/502.0%0.39
Coming back after 8 to 14 days5/1144.4%0.541/313.2%0.42
In fields of 8-1120/2717.4%0.924/735.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)1/313.2%0.451/520.0%4.5
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 101 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90 demand
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n188) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.37s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 9
7.79 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm12th—43.8 +0.9999.4+0.39—
27 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow5thFast early42.3 +0.7298.0—
13 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd10thTrue41.4 +0.05102.0+0.34
6 Feb 26Newcastle5fStd13thTrue43.1 -0.18101.0+0.49
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd1stTrue41.9 +0.32100.7+0.00
9 Dec 25Newcastle5fSlow6thSlow early42.1 +0.26103.9+0.61
Timed runs 2025-12-09 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
ORIENTAL PRINCE · 4 meetings≈ 6.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 1st vs 10th, 4.15L ahead
JORDAN ELECTRICS · 2 meetings≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 8th, 1.4L behind
DANDY MAGIC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 4th, 3.55L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LORD ROXBY (IRE) (read through ROUSING ENCORE, MANILA SCOUSE, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, LETHAL NYMPH) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CLONMACASH (read through MANILA SCOUSE, MIRACULOUS, ROSENPUR, SECRET GUEST) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through ALPHA MAGIC, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, STRONG WARRIOR, TUCO SALAMANCA) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs AZURE ZAIN (FR) (read through ROUSING ENCORE, LORD BERTIE, HOUR BY HOUR, BONITO CAVALO) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
18lb below his last winning mark (70 today vs 88)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, not quicken”
#7 ORIENTAL PRINCE PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 71 · Rhys Elliott / Jim Goldie
MARKET 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 19pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 32 tries · beats market expectation (1.63)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.8% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 5.0f · rated 777thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 6320thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 145thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 7810thClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 76
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ORIENTAL PRINCEneeds 90–96best 872025-02-27 · TFR 61 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 76 · 6.07f · Std · C52025-03-29 · TFR 73 · 6f · Slow · C52025-04-02 · TFR 85 · 6.07f · Std · C62025-04-13 · TFR 81 · 7.07f · Good · C22025-04-26 · TFR 74 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C32025-05-10 · TFR 86 · 6.96f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-28 · TFR 86 · 5.03f · Good · C42025-06-15 · TFR 53 · 5.03f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-21 · TFR 41 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-31 · TFR 79 · 6.09f · Std · C22025-08-21 · TFR 82 · 6f · Slow · C32025-09-06 · TFR 75 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C42025-09-19 · TFR 2 · 6f · Soft · C22025-09-30 · TFR 27 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-13 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C52025-11-01 · TFR 87 · 5f · Slow · C42025-11-17 · TFR 76 · 6f · Slow · C32025-12-09 · TFR 84 · 5f · Slow · C32026-01-01 · TFR 84 · 6.07f · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 76 · 6f · Std · C22026-05-27 · TFR 78 · 5.03f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-12 · TFR 14 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-20 · TFR 63 · 6f · Soft · C42026-07-03 · TFR 77 · 5.01f · Gd/Frm · C327 Feb 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15514.2%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1615.6%0.48
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.223/605.0%0.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~90 the race demands
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 3/24 · at Ayr: A/E 0.76 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n60)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 9
7.57 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm4thTrue42.0 +0.62104.5+0.42
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft7thTrue41.3 +0.0299.2+0.03
12 Jun 26York7fGood20thTrue38.7 -0.9890.4-0.02
27 May 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm5thTrue43.4 -0.1697.4-0.14
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd10thTrue41.3 -0.2599.0-0.06
1 Jan 26Southwell6fStd3rdTrue40.1 -0.29102.3+0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.62very slow2f+0.44par3f+0.28par4f+0.23par5f+0.22fast
Timed runs 2026-01-01 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
THE CALTONIAN · 4 meetings≈ 6.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 10th vs 1st, 4.15L behind
AZURE ZAIN (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 13.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 Sep 25 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 11th vs 3rd, 13.65L behind
DANDY MAGIC (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Jun 26 · 6f · Soft — finished 7th vs 10th, 1.95L ahead
Read through a common rival
vs LORD ROXBY (IRE) (read through ORNE, ROUSING ENCORE, BERGERAC, VEYDARI) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through LORD BERTIE, CLASSY AL, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ALPHA MAGIC, BERGERAC) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CLONMACASH (read through MIRACULOUS, THE GOOD BISCUIT, EMERALD HARMONY, MANILA SCOUSE) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayProven over the trip (32 tries, beats market expectation at 1.63)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsLost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, weakened over 1f out”
#8 DANDY MAGIC (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 8 · OR 70 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 20pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.74)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.34% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 5.8f · rated 764thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 7810thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 5510thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 573rdClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DANDY MAGIC (IRE)needs 90–96best 822025-02-15 · TFR 74 · 6.07f · Std · C52025-04-08 · TFR 57 · 7.06f · Std · C42025-04-18 · TFR 57 · 7f · Std · C42025-08-22 · TFR 68 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-18 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-30 · TFR 59 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-11-03 · TFR 66 · 6.07f · Std · C42025-11-07 · TFR 73 · 6f · Slow · C52025-11-22 · TFR 82 · 6f · Slow · C52025-12-13 · TFR 81 · 6f · Slow · C42025-12-19 · TFR 65 · 6f · Std · C52026-01-01 · TFR 73 · 5f · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 82 · 6f · Std · C52026-02-19 · TFR 79 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-24 · TFR 57 · 6f · Slow · C52026-06-20 · TFR 55 · 6f · Soft · C42026-07-06 · TFR 78 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-09 · TFR 76 · 5.83f · Gd/Frm · C415 Feb 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1615.6%0.48
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.223/605.0%0.6
Coming back after 8 to 14 days66/31421.0%1.7112/12010.0%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)6/2920.7%1.481/185.6%0.55
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 83 is below the ~90 the race demands
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 0/16 · at Ayr: A/E 1.24 (n66) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n303)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.61s
Slow away in 6 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Carlisle5fGd/Frm4thTrue41.5 -0.29101.2+0.58
6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm4th—43.5 +0.6899.4+0.88—
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft10thTrue41.6 +0.3699.2+0.77
19 Feb 26Newcastle5fStd3rdTrue41.0 +0.00104.8+0.58
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd2ndTrue41.7 +0.90107.0+0.50
1 Jan 26Newcastle5fStd5thTrue40.8 +0.01102.5+0.36
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.96slow2f+1.29par3f+1.39par4f+1.08par5f+0.61par6f+0.23fast
Timed runs 2026-01-01 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
ORIENTAL PRINCE · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Jun 26 · 6f · Soft — finished 10th vs 7th, 1.95L behind
AZURE ZAIN (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 4.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 Sep 25 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 3rd, 4.9L behind
JORDAN ELECTRICS · 1 meeting≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 8th, 2.15L ahead
THE CALTONIAN · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 12th, 3.55L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 4 rival(s) met (+1.0L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CLONMACASH (read through MANILA SCOUSE, THE GOOD BISCUIT, THUNDERSTORM KATIE, ISHE WORTH AGAMBLE) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LORD ROXBY (IRE) (read through ROUSING ENCORE, MAE AMOR, MANILA SCOUSE, WOVEN) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayStable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsLost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)
LTO comment
“slowly away, rear, headway when forced to switch over 1f out, weaved through final 1f, ran on”
#9 AZURE ZAIN (FR) MID
DRAW 4 · OR 76 · Warren Fentiman / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
66.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 29.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
66.3 · ranked #9 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (1.31)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.95% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 6.0f · rated 621stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 8411thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 535thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 703rdClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AZURE ZAIN (FR)needs 90–96best 852025-05-04 · TFR 66 · 5.03f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-19 · TFR 65 · 6.09f · Slow · C52025-06-10 · TFR 85 · 6.09f · Slow · C52025-07-10 · TFR 43 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-07-31 · TFR 76 · 6.09f · Std · C42025-08-16 · TFR 65 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-19 · TFR 70 · 6f · Soft · C22025-09-30 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-20 · TFR 84 · 5.01f · Heavy · C42025-11-06 · TFR 70 · 6f · Slow · C42026-02-11 · TFR 53 · 6.07f · Std · C52026-05-09 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-21 · TFR 62 · 6f · Good · C34 May 2521 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 380 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark—18/12314.6%1.53
In fields of 8-11—23/17812.9%1.26
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)—0/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~90 the race demands
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/15 · at Ayr: A/E 0 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 1.58 (n51)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 9
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood6thTrue39.5 +0.05100.1+0.00
9 May 26Ascot6fGd/Frm1st—41.5 +0.26102.3+0.01—
11 Feb 26Southwell6fStd11thTrue40.0 -0.29102.7+0.24
6 Nov 25Chelmsford City6fSlow5thTrue41.5 +0.0499.4+0.73
30 Sep 25Ayr6fGd/Sft3rdTrue41.0 +0.0696.7+0.16
19 Sep 25Ayr6fSoft11thTrue40.8 +0.0492.6+0.45
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26slow2f+0.26par3f+0.36par4f+0.32par5f+0.40par6f+1.51very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-19 to 2026-06-21. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
ORIENTAL PRINCE · 2 meetings≈ 13.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
30 Sep 25 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 3rd vs 11th, 13.65L ahead
DANDY MAGIC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
30 Sep 25 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 3rd vs 9th, 4.9L ahead
LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 13th, 8.25L ahead
Read through a common rival
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, MISTER SOX, JUAN LES PINS, AMERICAN STYLE) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through ROUSING ENCORE, LORD BERTIE, MONTEZUMA, CLASSY AL) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CLONMACASH (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, SECRET GUEST, MANILA SCOUSE, INTERVENTION) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE CALTONIAN (read through ROUSING ENCORE, LORD BERTIE, HOUR BY HOUR, BONITO CAVALO) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 73)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayProven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 1.31)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened approaching final 1f”