THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HALE END (IRE) leads on 80, 5pts clear of KRISSY (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is STARLINER (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market is line-ball — it just prefers RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE) at 26% to our top pick.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
HALE END (IRE)
OR 75 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 4.2 · the market rates it a 24% chance
80FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80)Proven over the trip (36 tries, beats market expectation at 1.22)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
KRISSY (IRE)
OR 73 · Rhys Elliott / Jim Goldie
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (75.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
DONNA NOOK
OR 72 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 9.4 · the market rates it a 11% chance
74FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (74)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runsRace-fit — ran 12 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1HALE END (IRE)net +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip
2KRISSY (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going
3RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. KRISSY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge HALE END (IRE) lacks: runs the dominant winning style here.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE) FIGURE #6
Tristan Davidson's runners on turf win 17.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (7 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
21 similar races at AYR, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites). 5% won last time out, 57% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
52% 4yo
24% 6yo+
19% 5yo
Last ran
57% 15-45d
38% within 14d
5% first run
Market
48% 4th+ in the market
29% favourite
14% 3rd favourite
LTO form
57% placed last time
33% unplaced last time
5% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HALE END (IRE) is 0/7 on softer ground · KRISSY (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground · DONNA NOOK is 0/5 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HALE END (IRE)HELD-UP49.4%103.4a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
KRISSY (IRE)FRONT49.6%101.8a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
CISCO DISCO (IRE)PROMINENT49.9%102.3concedes ~2.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
DONNA NOOKFRONT49.4%100.1concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
BENACRE (IRE)PROMINENT50.1%100.1concedes ~2.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE)FRONT50.9%100.3the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
MAYOR OF MAGHERAPROMINENT49.6%102.2concedes ~2.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
STARLINER (IRE)MID48.7%105.3the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
KEEP ME STABLE (IRE)PROMINENT49.5%101.1concedes ~2.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · slow from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE)FRONTtypically ~3.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KRISSY (IRE)FRONTtypically ~3.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
DONNA NOOKFRONTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MAYOR OF MAGHERAPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
CISCO DISCO (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KEEP ME STABLE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · slow away (0.43s off the field’s best breaker)
BENACRE (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HALE END (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 75 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 4.2 · the market rates it a 24% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
80FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 5pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
80 · ranked #1 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 36 tries · beats market expectation (1.22)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.42% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.74)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips35/3579.8%0.9913/8914.6%1.59
Above their last winning mark ✦31/27711.2%1.0212/7715.6%1.23
In Class 4-5 company56/56010.0%0.9819/15412.3%1.22
Coming back after 15 to 45 days47/5089.3%0.9117/14112.1%1.15
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20· at Ayr: A/E 1.59 (n46)· with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n168)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.30 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 9
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr8fGood7thTrue40.3 +0.11106.3+0.22
13 Jun 26York8fGood10th—39.6 +0.02102.5+0.23
20 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm2ndFast early41.2 +0.81100.3+0.17
Timed runs 2026-02-24 to 2026-07-05. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
DONNA NOOK · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 Aug 25 · 8f · Good — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.7L ahead
CISCO DISCO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 May 26 · 8f · Good — finished 2nd vs 9th, 7.35L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+2.8L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE) (read through LEVER UP, EY UP ITS JAZZ, PISANELLO, DWINDLING FUNDS) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BENACRE (IRE) (read through JANNAS JOURNEY, BARLEY, BOY DOUGLAS, QAZAQ) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through LEVER UP, GEO, FINANCER, PISANELLO) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through DETECTIVE, WEST TYRONE, SAXONIA) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80)Proven over the trip (36 tries, beats market expectation at 1.22)Jockey goes well at this track (1.59x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“off pace, pushed along 2f out, not quicken”
#2KRISSY (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 9 · OR 73 · Rhys Elliott / Jim Goldie
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 5pts off the top, prominent in the betting; a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.2)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15514.2%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/16810.7%0.76
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 3/24· at Ayr: A/E 0.76 (n83)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n60)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.26 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
101.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 9
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Carlisle9fGood4th—38.3 -0.0296.5+0.06—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm1stTrue38.2 -0.52103.2-0.43
17 Jun 26Ripon9fGood6thTrue38.5 -0.44102.7—
31 May 26Thirsk7fGood10thTrue39.2 -0.55106.0+0.21
29 May 26Carlisle9fGood1stTrue36.3 +0.00100.1-0.02
21 May 26Musselburgh8fGood1stTrue38.0 +0.00102.7+0.37
Timed runs 2026-05-21 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
29 May 26 · 9f · Good — finished 1st vs 8th, 6.55L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BENACRE (IRE) (read through GEO, POLYGRAM, KING CHAOS) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DONNA NOOK (read through THE NEW BAY PEARL, NATURALIA, BRIDGET'S VIEW, EPIDAVROS) ≈ -5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through GOLDEN VALOUR, BAY DREAM BELIEVER, SALARIA) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through ON THE BUBBLE, MISEMERALD, MADE ALL) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (75.0)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“made all, ridden 2f out, held on gamely”
#3DONNA NOOKFRONT
DRAW 6 · OR 72 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 9.4 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
74FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
74 · ranked #3 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
1 win from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.4)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2019 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/679.0%0.71
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0215/2027.4%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)12/8713.8%0.970/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 5/41· at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n87)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n824)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
-0.06s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle6fGd/Frm4thTrue38.5 -0.3096.2-0.15
3 Jun 26Ripon8fGood1stTrue39.7 +0.1999.1—
27 May 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Frm4thSlow early40.5 +0.26109.6+0.04
12 May 26Beverley8fGd/Frm9thFast early39.0 -0.1990.0+0.00
5 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm2ndTrue40.3 -0.70105.1-0.18
Timed runs 2026-05-05 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
27 May 26 · 8.3f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 3rd, 1L behind
HALE END (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
23 Aug 25 · 8f · Good — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.7L behind
Read through a common rival
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through THE NEW BAY PEARL, NATURALIA, BRIDGET'S VIEW, EPIDAVROS) ≈ +5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through EVE'S BOY, UNION ISLAND, NOVAK, QAZAQ) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through AMIDST THE CHAOS, UNION ISLAND, PERFIDIA, POET'S DAWN) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CISCO DISCO (IRE) (read through SANAFI ZABEEL, PEARL EYE, PENELOPE'S SISTER, SOPHIESTICATE) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (74)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, shaken up early in straight, headed over 1f out, weakened final ½f”
#4BENACRE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 72 · Oliver Stammers / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 7pts off the top, dropping in class; concedes ~2.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 101
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 38 tries · below market expectation (0.66)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Class Reversion Watch[P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 101 at its peak · running to 73 now
a 28pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
6lb LOWER than the mark it last WON from (72 today · won off 78)
it has already won a race from a HIGHER mark than today's — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
3rd fastest of 9 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 12% with first-time gear (A/E 1.26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 27 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2319 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark ✦5/618.2%0.754/577.0%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦104/85612.1%0.9922/2349.4%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)4/449.1%0.773/1520.0%1.6
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 101 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Oliver Stammers · last 14 days: 1/7· at Ayr: A/E 1.81 (n20)· with this yard: A/E 0.86 (n102)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 9
7.62 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Carlisle7fGood4th—38.4 +0.04100.9-0.01—
19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood5thTrue40.0 -0.3599.5+0.00
30 May 26Beverley7fGd/Frm11thTrue40.1 -0.2096.7+0.02
21 May 26Musselburgh7fGood5thSlow early39.6 -0.02—+0.42
Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 4 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through GEO, POLYGRAM, KING CHAOS) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through QAZAQ, ABDUCTION, JUDGMENT CALL, NOVAK) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CISCO DISCO (IRE) (read through MISTER INVINCIBLE, CANDONOMORE) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HALE END (IRE) (read through JANNAS JOURNEY, BARLEY, BOY DOUGLAS, QAZAQ) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (72 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 73, 14pts above his recent average of 58.7Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 21 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.81x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden 2f out, weakened 1f out”
#5MAYOR OF MAGHERAPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 63 · Sam James / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 6−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 7pts off the top, in form; concedes ~2.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.52)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.24% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company5/885.7%1.261/156.7%2.24
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips4/765.3%1.230/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/1049.6%1.520/240.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/6013.3%1.270/120.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 5/20· at Ayr: A/E 0.51 (n39)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
102.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 9
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm1stTrue39.0 -0.38106.5+0.06
19 Jun 26Ayr8fSoft4thTrue37.5 +0.00101.7-0.04
5 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGood3rdTrue38.1 -0.21102.7+0.30
20 Mar 25Newcastle8fSlow4thTrue—98.7—
4 Mar 25Southwell8fStd6thTrue38.1 -0.09100.1+0.04
8 Feb 25Newcastle8fSlow6thSlow early39.4 -0.29103.8—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledslow5fledpar6fledpar7f+0.09par1m+0.06very fast1m 1fledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-02-08 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5 Jun 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 3rd vs 8th, 9.55L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+7.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through UNION ISLAND, APPROACHING DAWN, WITHOUT DELAY) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through GOLDEN VALOUR, BAY DREAM BELIEVER, SALARIA) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE) (read through BRAES OF DOUNE, GOLDEN VALOUR, UNION ISLAND, POET'S DAWN) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CISCO DISCO (IRE) (read through DINGWALL, MOTAWAARED, BRAES OF DOUNE, KEATS HOUSE) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.52)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, ridden 2f out, headed over 1f out, led again post, rallied”
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tristan Davidson · 274 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)13/8515.3%1.443/1127.3%1.7
Coming back after within 7 days3/1618.8%1.192/922.2%1.62
In Class 4-5 company14/11212.5%1.175/3912.8%1.27
On turf ✦18/12914.0%1.318/4717.0%1.25
Above their last winning mark8/6212.9%0.975/2520.0%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/767.9%0.851/128.3%0.6
At Ayr3/2711.1%1.091/911.1%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 74 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 11/47· at Ayr: A/E 0.95 (n154)· with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n60)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 9
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm1stTrue41.6 -0.12104.4+0.19
15 Jun 26Carlisle7fGood5thTrue37.5 -0.4597.6+0.04
8 Jun 26Carlisle9fGd/Sft3rdFast early36.1 -0.3496.0+0.00
29 May 26Carlisle9fGood8thTrue36.2 -0.0998.5+0.00
5 May 26Ayr9fGd/Frm10th—38.9 -0.0599.5-0.03
27 Oct 25Newcastle8fSlow3rdTrue39.9 -0.06105.7-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-2.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CISCO DISCO (IRE) (read through STAR CAST, BRAES OF DOUNE, BELLASIO, WHISKEY PETE) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through UNION ISLAND, LOVETTE, TRAIS FLUORS, CONCERT BOY) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through BRAES OF DOUNE, GOLDEN VALOUR, UNION ISLAND, POET'S DAWN) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HALE END (IRE) (read through LEVER UP, EY UP ITS JAZZ, PISANELLO, DWINDLING FUNDS) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 60)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, pushed along over 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, kept on”
#7STARLINER (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 61 · William Pyle / Linda Perratt
MARKET 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 10pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 40 tries · below market expectation (0.54)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.34% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 30 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Linda Perratt · 599 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark4/775.2%0.85/4810.4%1.5
In Class 4-5 company12/1746.9%0.985/4810.4%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1565.8%0.940/170.0%0.0
On turf10/2414.1%0.761/502.0%0.39
In fields of 8-1120/2717.4%0.924/735.5%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
William Pyle · last 14 days: 0/17· at Ayr: A/E 1.12 (n50)· with this yard: A/E 1.73 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
-0.09s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
105.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 9
6.97 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm2ndTrue42.6 +0.88103.9+0.23
6 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm8th—41.4 +0.30109.4+0.00—
5 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGood8thTrue38.8 +0.49100.3-0.82
27 May 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Frm3rdSlow early40.5 +0.32111.1+0.00
16 May 26Thirsk7fGood9thTrue39.5 -0.29101.8+0.06
5 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm1stTrue41.0 +0.00105.6+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-05 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
DONNA NOOK · 2 meetings≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
27 May 26 · 8.3f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 4th, 1L ahead
HALE END (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 May 26 · 8f · Good — finished 9th vs 2nd, 7.35L behind
MAYOR OF MAGHERA · 1 meeting≈ 7.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
5 Jun 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 8th vs 3rd, 9.55L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 4 rival(s) met (-1.2L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs KEEP ME STABLE (IRE) (read through LOVETTE, NATIVE HONEY, EVE'S BOY, UNION ISLAND) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CISCO DISCO (IRE) (read through BRAES OF DOUNE, WHISKEY PETE, DETECTIVE, MILLBUIE) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through IZZARI, GOLDEN VALOUR, EAGLES DREAM, POLYGRAM) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BENACRE (IRE) (read through BARLEY, JANNAS JOURNEY, YAASER, OBELIX) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 8pts above his recent average of 61.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“handy, headway early in straight, shaken up over 2f out, kept on, no impression on winner”
#8CISCO DISCO (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 73 · Paul Mulrennan / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 60 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 6−
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 16pts off the top, dropping in class; concedes ~2.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
1 win from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.52)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.35% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company5/885.7%1.261/156.7%2.24
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips4/765.3%1.230/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/1049.6%1.520/240.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/6013.3%1.270/120.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 4/37· at Ayr: A/E 1.03 (n272)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 9
6.97 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr10fGood10thTrue39.0 -0.88105.7-0.02
19 Jun 26Ayr10fSoft7thFast early37.2 -0.2199.2+0.08
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-8.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BENACRE (IRE) (read through MISTER INVINCIBLE, CANDONOMORE) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs RUNNINSONOFAGUN (IRE) (read through STAR CAST, BRAES OF DOUNE, BELLASIO, WHISKEY PETE) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through DINGWALL, MOTAWAARED, BRAES OF DOUNE, KEATS HOUSE) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through FALCON NINE, BELLASIO, NATURALIA, SWEET KISS) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.52)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (4 from 18 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, lost place before home turn, carried head awkwardly, not run on”
#9KEEP ME STABLE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 61 · Andrew Mullen / Linda Perratt
MARKET 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
51.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 29pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
51.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (2.06)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.06% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Linda Perratt · 599 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company12/1746.9%0.985/4810.4%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1565.8%0.940/170.0%0.0
On turf10/2414.1%0.761/502.0%0.39
Coming back after 8 to 14 days5/1144.4%0.541/313.2%0.42
In fields of 8-1120/2717.4%0.924/735.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)0/170.0%0.01/616.7%4.27
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 2/27· at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n188)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
-0.20 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.43s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 9
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr7fGd/Frm11th—39.2 -1.13101.6-0.05—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm7thSlow early38.4 -0.3495.8+2.17
7 Jun 25Musselburgh8fGd/Frm1stTrue38.6 -0.02100.8+0.38
Timed runs 2025-06-07 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BENACRE (IRE) (read through QAZAQ, ABDUCTION, JUDGMENT CALL, NOVAK) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAYOR OF MAGHERA (read through UNION ISLAND, APPROACHING DAWN, WITHOUT DELAY) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KRISSY (IRE) (read through ON THE BUBBLE, MISEMERALD, MADE ALL) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs STARLINER (IRE) (read through LOVETTE, NATIVE HONEY, EVE'S BOY, UNION ISLAND) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 2.06)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“soon led, kicked on straight, headed around 2f out, no response”