THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (78% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) leads on 65.3, 0.3pts clear of GLASSES UP (USA) — proven on the ground. The case against the top pick: tends to burn early and empty out. The shape danger is GLASSES UP (USA) — just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late. The market sees it differently, making GLASSES UP (USA) the 22% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 11
TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE)
OR 60 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
65.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (65.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.59x market expectation)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
GLASSES UP (USA)
OR 53 · Clifford Lee / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−3lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 56)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (65.0)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 10
PHANTOM SHADOW (FR)
OR 58 · Jason Hart / Ewan Whillans
MARKET 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (64.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1GLASSES UP (USA)net +9figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, proven at trip, proven on the going
2PHANTOM SHADOW (FR)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
3BRAES OF DOUNEnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) carries tends to burn early and empty out. GLASSES UP (USA) is the one to beat it — an edge TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) lacks: proven at the trip.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
FALCON NINE FIGURE #6
Iain Jardine's runners in Class 6-7 company win 20.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Iain Jardine's runners on turf win 10.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
18 similar races at AYR, 9.5-10.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (78% from the first three favourites). 17% won last time out, 17% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
33% 6yo+
28% 5yo
22% 3yo
Last ran
61% within 14d
33% 15-45d
6% 46-90d
Market
28% 3rd favourite
28% 2nd favourite
22% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
67% unplaced last time
17% won last time
17% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–11
1234567891011
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · GLASSES UP (USA) is 0/10 on softer ground · PHANTOM SHADOW (FR) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MOTAWAAREDHELD-UP49.6%102.3solid late gains (5th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE)PROMINENT50.7%97.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
FALCON NINEMID49.5%102.7the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
BRAES OF DOUNEHELD-UP48.2%104.9a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
TOY SOLDIER (IRE)MID50.9%95.9held up without the late gear (11th of 11 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GLASSES UP (USA)PROMINENT49.2%106.5just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late
SOPHIESTICATE (IRE)MID50.4%100.4one-paced late — 9th of 11 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
PHANTOM SHADOW (FR)MID48.7%102.6solid late gains (4th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GOLDEN VALOURMID50.1%100.9solid late gains (7th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
WADACRE GEISHAPROMINENT50.2%100.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
ON THE BUBBLEFRONT50.0%101.0the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · slow from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ON THE BUBBLEFRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · slow away (0.36s off the field’s best breaker)
WADACRE GEISHAPROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
GLASSES UP (USA)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.16s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 11 · OR 60 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
65.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, proven on the ground; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
65.3 · ranked #1 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.17)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days47/5089.3%0.9117/14112.1%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/28010.4%0.886/797.6%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)4/449.1%0.830/110.0%0.0
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)2/258.0%0.921/119.1%0.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20· at Ayr: A/E 1.59 (n46)· with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n168)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 11
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 May 26Carlisle11fGood3rdFast early38.6 -0.4095.0+0.00
3 May 26Hamilton Park11fGood3rdFast early39.2 -0.1399.5+0.28
9 Oct 25Newcastle12fSlow9thTrue37.0 -0.6097.5—
20 Aug 25Carlisle11fGd/Frm1stTrue41.0 -0.1196.5+0.27
Timed runs 2025-08-20 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs MOTAWAARED (read through NATURALIA, WEST TYRONE) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FALCON NINE (read through NATURALIA, SWEET KISS, SPEECHMAN, ALPINE SIERRA) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ON THE BUBBLE (read through ALPINE SIERRA, COUGAR, SENSE OF WORTH, HICKTON) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SOPHIESTICATE (IRE) (read through NATURALIA, CASCADE HALL, RAVENSWELL, VALLEY OF FLOWERS) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (65.3)Only 5 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.59x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed 3f out, weakened”
#2GLASSES UP (USA)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 53 · Clifford Lee / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 0.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (2.25)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 2.7s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 106.47% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)2/336.1%0.680/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 1/18· at Ayr: A/E 0.93 (n71)· with this yard: A/E 2.05 (n17)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.46 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
106.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length11th of 11
6.97 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr13fGd/Frm1stTrue39.2 -0.02108.8-0.13
5 Jul 26Ayr10fGood5thTrue38.5 -0.82105.0-0.11
19 Jun 26Ayr10fSoft7thTrue38.1 -0.72112.8-0.06
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park13fGood6thTrue38.0 -0.37106.9+0.14
21 May 26Musselburgh8fGood5thTrue37.3 -0.72102.7+0.55
5 May 26Ayr9fGd/Frm3rd—38.9 -0.10102.6+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-05 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
vs MOTAWAARED (read through DINGWALL, JUJUBELLA, MILLBUIE, CISCO DISCO) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) (read through COUGAR, CASCADE HALL, VALLEY OF FLOWERS, NATURALIA) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 56)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (65.0)Proven over the trip (18 tries, beats market expectation at 2.25)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (6 from 21 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away”
#3PHANTOM SHADOW (FR)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 10 · OR 58 · Jason Hart / Ewan Whillans
MARKET 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 1.3pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (4th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
58 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.57% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ewan Whillans · 353 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/918.8%0.94/1625.0%2.05
At Ayr6/4613.0%1.062/1612.5%1.7
On turf11/1348.2%0.756/4613.0%1.61
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1169.5%0.935/4511.1%1.2
In Class 6-7 company ✦20/18111.0%1.036/5311.3%1.15
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 11/47· at Ayr: A/E 0.95 (n154)· with this yard: A/E 0.89 (n61)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
102.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 11
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+7.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (64.0)Only 1 run at this distanceLost roughly 3.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“steadied start, dropped out, weaved through 2f out, headway soon after, ran on”
#4TOY SOLDIER (IRE)MID
DRAW 8 · OR 57 · Lexie Clarkson / Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
MARKET 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
61FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 4.3pts off the top, prominent in the betting; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
61 · ranked #4 here · career best 77 · earned over 7.2/7.4/7.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · 68 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-111/205.0%0.641/1010.0%1.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/273.7%0.491/812.5%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company1/244.2%0.550/60.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)1/812.5%2.270/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/345.9%0.740/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 77 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~65.0 demand here
The rider
Lexie Clarkson · last 14 days: 0/1· at Ayr: A/E 0 (n2)· with this yard: A/E 3.29 (n9)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
95.9%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 11
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-05-10 to 2026-07-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs GOLDEN VALOUR (read through MONHAMMER, JKR COBBLER, RAMON DI LORIA, TATTIE BOGLE) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 7.2/7.4/7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, progress home turn, weaved through entering final 1f, kept on”
#5MOTAWAAREDHELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 60 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
60FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
60 · ranked #5 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
60 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.28% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips13/12610.3%0.999/5117.6%1.29
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15514.2%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 4/37· at Ayr: A/E 1.03 (n272)· with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n734)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.77s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 11
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Musselburgh12fGd/Frm6thTrue37.7 -0.18100.4+0.20
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Sft5thTrue38.6 -0.05102.9+0.63
5 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGood6thTrue39.2 +0.88101.5+1.09
Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-06-22. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
22 Jun 26 · 12.5f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 3rd, 14L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs GOLDEN VALOUR (read through PISANELLO, CONDOTTI, STARLINER, MILLBUIE) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) (read through NATURALIA, WEST TYRONE) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAES OF DOUNE (read through STARLINER, MILLBUIE, MAYOR OF MAGHERA, HUNTERIAN) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ON THE BUBBLE (read through GEMINI MAN, SPIRIT CATCHER, UNION ISLAND, MILLBUIE) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“close up, dropped away over 1f out”
#6FALCON NINEMID
DRAW 5 · OR 58 · Sam James / Iain Jardine
MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
60FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
60 · ranked #6 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.91)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.72% (holds late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1191 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, off marks of 60 or below, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦50/35214.2%1.1726/12820.3%1.46
In fields of 8-1142/4718.9%0.9725/17414.4%1.32
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.996/3417.6%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips11/1199.2%0.892/434.7%0.5
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 5/20· at Ayr: A/E 0.51 (n39)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
102.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 11
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr10fGd/Frm9th—39.1 -0.48106.1+0.20—
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park9fGd/Sft4thTrue38.8 -0.06103.4+0.08
8 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood2ndTrue35.6 -0.59102.6+0.18
21 May 26Musselburgh8fGood7thTrue37.1 -0.94102.7+0.00
19 Dec 25Newcastle8fStd4thTrue39.3 +0.3398.0+0.49
1 Nov 25Newcastle10fSlow10thTrue38.5 +1.13103.5+0.49
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
GOLDEN VALOUR · 2 meetings≈ 3.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 Oct 25 · 8f · Heavy — finished 3rd vs 11th, 12.1L ahead
GLASSES UP (USA) · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
21 May 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 7th vs 5th, 9.25L behind
ON THE BUBBLE · 2 meetings≈ 5.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
21 May 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 7th vs 3rd, 11.8L behind
BRAES OF DOUNE · 1 meeting≈ 3.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
1 May 25 · 8f · Good — finished 5th vs 2nd, 2L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-2.7L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) (read through NATURALIA, SWEET KISS, SPEECHMAN, ALPINE SIERRA) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SOPHIESTICATE (IRE) (read through NATURALIA, TEE AITCH AYE, ZEBRA STAR, CASCADE HALL) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOTAWAARED (read through NATURALIA, PRINCESS NIYLA, CONDOTTI, CISCO DISCO) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch after 2f, ridden 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#7SOPHIESTICATE (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 51 · Shay Farmer / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
59.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 6.3pts off the top, in form; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 77 · earned over 12.5/12.5/12.1f — but has run to 76 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)
Official mark (OR)
51 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 18 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.2s) Usually races held-up closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/1049.6%1.520/240.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Can it do what today needs? Proven at the trip — has run to 76 at today's distance, clears the ~65.0 demand (career best 77 came off-trip)
The rider
Shay Farmer · last 14 days: 1/7· at Ayr: A/E 1.72 (n16)· with this yard: A/E 14.94 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 11
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh12fGd/Frm3rdTrue—103.0—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh12fGd/Frm3rdTrue37.8 -0.10106.3+0.00
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park12fGood6thTrue38.5 +0.1497.3+0.24
20 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm7thFast early40.2 -0.19101.1+0.17
2 Dec 25Newcastle8fStd7thTrue38.5 -0.2897.2+0.31
5 Nov 25Musselburgh12fSoft7thFast early33.9 +0.0397.3+0.44
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-05 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
GLASSES UP (USA) · 5 meetings≈ 3.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
22 Jun 26 · 12.5f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 6th, 14L ahead
Read through a common rival
vs BRAES OF DOUNE (read through WHISKEY PETE, STARLINER, MILLBUIE, BAMBURGH) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FALCON NINE (read through NATURALIA, TEE AITCH AYE, ZEBRA STAR, CASCADE HALL) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) (read through NATURALIA, CASCADE HALL, RAVENSWELL, VALLEY OF FLOWERS) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (51 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 12.5/12.5/12.1f, but he has run to 76 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Jockey goes well at this track (1.72x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, ridden 3f out, kept on well from 2f out”
#8WADACRE GEISHAPROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 55 · Andrew Mullen / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
57FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 8.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
57 · ranked #8 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
55 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.59% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2319 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦22/22010.0%0.767/719.9%0.72
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦104/85612.1%0.9922/2349.4%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)4/449.1%0.773/1520.0%1.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 2/27· at Ayr: A/E 1.26 (n188)· with this yard: A/E 1.24 (n120)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.18 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 11
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-7.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 21 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led until around 2f out, faded”
#9ON THE BUBBLEFRONT
DRAW 1 · OR 46 · Jared Huggan / Gary Rutherford
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 8.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
46 · last won off 48
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
5
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gary Rutherford · 95 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-113/378.1%0.891/156.7%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark0/130.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)2/277.4%0.80/50.0%0.0
On turf2/405.0%0.620/230.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company4/517.8%0.81/254.0%0.57
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)1/119.1%0.510/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 60 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.36s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 11
6.99 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-07-15. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
GOLDEN VALOUR · 3 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
1 Oct 25 · 7.1f · Soft — finished 5th vs 11th, 7.8L ahead
FALCON NINE · 2 meetings≈ 5.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
21 May 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 3rd vs 7th, 11.8L ahead
GLASSES UP (USA) · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
21 May 26 · 8.9f · Good — finished 3rd vs 5th, 2.55L ahead
30 Jun 26 · 12.5f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 3rd, 4.5L behind
Read through a common rival
vs BRAES OF DOUNE (read through APPROACHING DAWN, MILLBUIE, ZEBRA STAR, RUNNINSONOFAGUN) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOTAWAARED (read through GEMINI MAN, SPIRIT CATCHER, UNION ISLAND, MILLBUIE) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TAYLORMADE LAD (IRE) (read through ALPINE SIERRA, COUGAR, SENSE OF WORTH, HICKTON) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (46 today vs 48)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 57, 9pts above his recent average of 48.0Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“raced clear, closed down over 3f out, shaken up 2f out, tackled approaching final 1f, headed close home”
#10BRAES OF DOUNEHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 57 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
56.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 9.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
57 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.15)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.87% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips13/12610.3%0.999/5117.6%1.29
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/728.3%0.57
Coming back after within 7 days40/17822.5%1.327/6111.5%0.65
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/16810.7%0.76
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 0/16· at Ayr: A/E 1.24 (n66)· with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n303)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.43 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.44s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
104.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 11
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm6thTrue42.4 +0.65104.3+0.60
19 Jun 26Ayr8fSoft6thTrue37.8 +0.3699.3+0.70
16 May 25Hamilton Park9fGd/Frm5thTrue40.4 +0.00108.7+0.25
vs ON THE BUBBLE (read through APPROACHING DAWN, MILLBUIE, ZEBRA STAR, RUNNINSONOFAGUN) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MOTAWAARED (read through STARLINER, MILLBUIE, MAYOR OF MAGHERA, HUNTERIAN) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SOPHIESTICATE (IRE) (read through WHISKEY PETE, STARLINER, MILLBUIE, BAMBURGH) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 24 runsLost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 13 here)
LTO comment
“dropped out, effort around 2f out, headway soon after, no extra final 1f”
#11GOLDEN VALOURMID
DRAW 7 · OR 48 · Rhys Elliott / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
55.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 10.3pts off the top, in form; solid late gains (7th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
55.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 65 · earned over 8.0/8.0/8.0f — but has run to 65 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)
Official mark (OR)
48 · last won off 49
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.92% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
R. Mike Smith · 289 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1456.9%1.111/137.7%1.83
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1113/1349.7%1.440/390.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company15/14610.3%1.351/372.7%0.31
On turf19/2218.6%1.282/533.8%0.55
At Ayr14/13310.5%1.631/273.7%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)2/336.1%0.680/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Proven at the trip — has run to 65 at today's distance, clears the ~65.0 demand (career best 65 came off-trip)
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 3/24· at Ayr: A/E 0.76 (n83)· with this yard: A/E 0.27 (n59)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 11
7.31 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.4 -0.33104.9+0.27
5 Jul 26Ayr8fGood5thTrue39.6 -0.0299.3+0.04
19 Jun 26Ayr8fSoft8thTrue36.8 -0.6998.8+0.47
29 May 26Carlisle9fGood7thTrue37.0 +0.75100.5+0.09
20 May 26Ayr7fGd/Frm5thFast early40.8 -0.26104.2-0.03
27 Oct 25Newcastle8fSlow6thTrue38.1 -0.2397.8-0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-27 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
BRAES OF DOUNE · 5 meetings≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Aug 23 · 10f · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 4.25L behind
GLASSES UP (USA) · 1 meeting≈ 4.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Aug 24 · 10f · Good — finished 8th vs 1st, 6.3L behind
Read through a common rival
vs MOTAWAARED (read through PISANELLO, CONDOTTI, STARLINER, MILLBUIE) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TOY SOLDIER (IRE) (read through MONHAMMER, JKR COBBLER, RAMON DI LORIA, TATTIE BOGLE) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 8.0/8.0/8.0f, but he has run to 65 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Improving fast — last run rated 55, 10pts above his recent average of 44.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 26 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits