FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ayr · 17:00
Class 6 · 5f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-20 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, SEA HER EXCEL should reach the front first — roughly 1.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, BRASH (IRE) leads on 74, 2pts clear of GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) — prominent in the betting. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The market sees it differently, making UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) the 30% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
BRASH (IRE)
OR 65 · William Pyle / David & Nicola Barron
MARKET 5.3 · the market rates it a 19% chance
74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−The top rating in this field (74.0)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE)
OR 64 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.3)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
UNDER THE RADAR (IRE)
OR 63 · Duran Fentiman / Tim Easterby
MARKET 3.4 · the market rates it a 30% chance
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (66.0)Race-fit — ran 4 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SEA HER EXCELnet +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup
3BRASH (IRE)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SEA HER EXCEL is the one to beat it — an edge BRASH (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: BRASH (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) is 0/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BRASH (IRE) MID 50.1% 99.3 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) MID 49.7% 99.8 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SEA HER EXCEL PROMINENT 51.4% 99.9 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) PROMINENT 50.8% 99.3 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
SANDS OF SEVE MID 51.1% 97.7 held up without the late gear (5th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) PROMINENT 51.2% 97.2 concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SEA HER EXCELPROMINENTtypically ~2.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
UNDER THE RADAR (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
BRAIN FREEZE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.21s off the best)
measured on their own past openings, SEA HER EXCEL should reach the front first — roughly 1.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 BRASH (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 65 · William Pyle / David & Nicola Barron
MARKET 5.3 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, prominent in the betting; one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
65 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.27% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 743rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 667thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 517thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 50
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BRASH (IRE)best 74needs 72–732026-05-16 · TFR 50 · 6.01f · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 51 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-06-19 · TFR 66 · 6f · Soft · C52026-07-06 · TFR 74 · 6f · Good · C616 May 266 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David & Nicola Barron · 541 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, switching jockey after a defeat, without the retained rider
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=78/7510.7%0.696/2030.0%1.66
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company12/12010.0%1.04/3810.5%0.66
Coming back after 8 to 14 days7/967.3%0.673/2711.1%0.77
At this time of year (Q3)11/1596.9%0.771/119.1%0.83
On turf ✦25/3187.9%0.797/808.8%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)2/238.7%0.990/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand
The rider
William Pyle · last 14 days: 0/17 · at Ayr: A/E 1.12 (n50) · with this yard: A/E 0.68 (n79)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.35s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 6
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon6fGood2ndTrue41.5 -0.2995.4—
19 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft3rdTrue39.1 +0.40100.0+0.01
5 Jun 26Thirsk7fGd/Sft7thTrue38.2 -0.1199.5+0.03
16 May 26Doncaster6fGood7thTrue40.8 +0.22102.1+1.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.14fast2f+0.17fast3f+0.04fast4f+0.04par5f+0.15slow6f+0.31very slow
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) (read through LONG SHOT, NORTHERN TEMPEST) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (74.0)Improving fast — last run rated 74, 10pts above his recent average of 63.7Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“never far away, ridden over 1f out, kept on”
#2 GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) MID
DRAW 2 · OR 64 · S. B. Kirrane / Michael Dods
MARKET 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.3)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.79% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time visor · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.74)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 723rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 693rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 604thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 707thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 29
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE)needs 72–73best 722025-08-09 · TFR 46 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-22 · TFR 36 · 6.03f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-14 · TFR 64 · 5f · Std · C52025-11-07 · TFR 38 · 6f · Slow · C62025-11-24 · TFR 59 · 5f · Slow · C62025-12-16 · TFR 65 · 5f · Slow · C62026-01-31 · TFR 29 · 6f · Slow · C62026-04-20 · TFR 70 · 5f · Std · C62026-05-19 · TFR 60 · 5f · Std · C62026-06-02 · TFR 69 · 5f · Std · C62026-06-16 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C59 Aug 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦31/27711.2%1.0212/7715.6%1.23
Coming back after 15 to 45 days47/5089.3%0.9117/14112.1%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=728/14918.8%1.134/478.5%0.63
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/28010.4%0.886/797.6%0.69
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Ayr: A/E 1.59 (n46) · with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n168)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 6
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood2ndFast early42.1 -0.09101.0+0.32
2 Jun 26Newcastle5fStd3rdTrue40.4 +0.02102.0—
19 May 26Newcastle5fStd3rdTrue41.1 -0.08101.5+0.00
20 Apr 26Newcastle5fStd4thTrue42.6 +0.13100.3+0.00
31 Jan 26Newcastle6fSlow7thTrue41.0 -0.0895.3+0.00
16 Dec 25Newcastle5fSlow1stTrue41.1 +0.0998.6+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.55par2f+0.72par3f+0.36fast4f+0.36par5f+0.07par
Timed runs 2025-12-16 to 2026-06-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SANDS OF SEVE (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, RESDEV KISSES) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SEA HER EXCEL (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, RYEFIELD, SURGEON COMMANDER, BELLA DELIZIA) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) (read through RIFFA SPIRIT, BRAVO HOTEL, DATA FATA SECUTUS, FILLE UNIQUE) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) (read through SIMBA'S PRIDE, U TURN, HOUNDHILL, BRAVE TRAVELLER) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (64 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.59x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“rear, outpaced before halfway, headway 2f out, third 1f out, ran on”
#3 UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 63 · Duran Fentiman / Tim Easterby
MARKET 3.4 · the market rates it a 30% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
63 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 12 tries · in line with the market (1.04)
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.3% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 669thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 356thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 566thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 695thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 49
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for UNDER THE RADAR (IRE)best 73needs 72–732025-04-14 · TFR 63 · 5.01f · Good · C52025-05-03 · TFR 73 · 5f · Good · C52025-05-14 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C22025-05-30 · TFR 54 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22025-07-19 · TFR 67 · 5.15f · Good · C22025-08-08 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-09-06 · TFR 60 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-23 · TFR 49 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-31 · TFR 69 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-12 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-25 · TFR 35 · 5f · Slow · C52026-07-16 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C514 Apr 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2909 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ayr7/828.5%0.883/2114.3%1.24
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand
The rider
Duran Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/17 · at Ayr: A/E 0.91 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 0.87 (n752)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 6
7.80 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Thirsk5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.7 -0.04100.1+0.00
25 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow9thTrue42.3 -0.1096.2—
12 Jun 26York5fGood6thTrue42.1 -0.1397.0-0.07
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood6thFast early43.0 -0.37101.8-0.12
23 May 26Haydock Park5fGd/Sft5thTrue40.2 -0.36100.8+0.00
6 Sep 25Thirsk5fGd/Sft8thSlow early40.8 -0.3399.9+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4f+0.07par5f+0.39slow
Timed runs 2025-09-06 to 2026-07-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SEA HER EXCEL (read through LITTLE JAYBEE, BELLA DELIZIA, I'M DAN DARE) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) (read through I'M DAN DARE, LOVE ALIVE, COSMIC CLARETS) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) (read through SIMBA'S PRIDE, U TURN, HOUNDHILL, BRAVE TRAVELLER) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (66.0)Improving fast — last run rated 66, 13pts above his recent average of 52.3Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“never better than mid-field”
#4 SEA HER EXCEL PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 64 · Elle-May Croot / Ivan Furtado
MARKET 4.7 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
64.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
64.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.86)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.91% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 611stClass 6 · 5.5f · rated 733rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 6013thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 373rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 60
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SEA HER EXCELbest 73needs 72–732025-07-26 · TFR 52 · 6.05f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-18 · TFR 54 · 6f · Soft · C52025-09-26 · TFR 60 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-26 · TFR 37 · 6.08f · Good · C62026-05-30 · TFR 60 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-04 · TFR 73 · 5.5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-15 · TFR 61 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C626 Jul 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 956 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips8/1944.1%0.6111/9711.3%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company37/28313.1%1.418/1186.8%0.69
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/2988.1%1.0211/1696.5%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ayr (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand
The rider
Elle-May Croot · last 14 days: 1/5 · at Ayr: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 1.24 (n244)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.22 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Windsor5fGd/Frm5thTrue42.6 -0.0597.9+0.28
4 Jun 26Wetherby5fGd/Frm1stFast early43.1 +0.27103.4+0.00
30 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Frm3rdTrue43.7 +0.82100.8-0.01
26 Apr 26Nottingham6fGood13thTrue40.0 -0.0595.5+0.26
26 Sep 25Newcastle6fSlow3rdSlow early41.3 +0.00107.7+0.07
18 Sep 25Pontefract6fSoft5thTrue39.0 +0.3294.1-0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3f+0.05par4f+0.23slow5f+0.62very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-06-15. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, RYEFIELD, SURGEON COMMANDER, BELLA DELIZIA) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SANDS OF SEVE (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, ROSIEISME DARLING, SOLAR INVINCIBLE, ELASHGAR) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) (read through LITTLE JAYBEE, BELLA DELIZIA, I'M DAN DARE) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, I'M DAN DARE, POWERNAP, TANAKA) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (64 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 3 wins from 11 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Prominent) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led until over 1f out, weakened final 1f”
#5 SANDS OF SEVE MID
DRAW 1 · OR 54 · Clifford Lee / Gary Harrison
MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 12pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 46
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.08)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.69% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 629thClass 6 · 5.7f · rated 214thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 496thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated —1stClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 61
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SANDS OF SEVEneeds 72–73best 622025-05-17 · TFR 19 · 5.01f · Firm · C42025-06-16 · TFR 15 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-23 · TFR 9 · 5.01f · Good · C52025-11-22 · TFR 12 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-12-18 · TFR 8 · 5f · Slow · C62026-02-07 · TFR 27 · 4.97f · Std · C62026-03-07 · TFR 61 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-04-23 · TFR 49 · 4.97f · Std · C52026-05-04 · TFR 21 · 5.73f · Good · C62026-06-30 · TFR 62 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C617 May 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gary Harrison · 88 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ayr0/50.0%0.01/520.0%3.22
Above their last winning mark0/10.0%0.01/714.3%1.32
On turf0/160.0%0.02/219.5%1.28
In Class 6-7 company0/320.0%0.03/368.3%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)0/140.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
In fields of <=70/20.0%0.01/911.1%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~72.0 the race demands
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Ayr: A/E 0.93 (n71)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGd/Frm2ndTrue—101.3—
4 May 26Bath5fGood9thTrue40.8 +0.7091.3+0.13
23 Apr 26Southwell4fStd4thTrue41.6 +0.3496.5+0.19
7 Mar 26Wolverhampton5fStd1stTrue40.4 +0.74102.3-0.07
7 Feb 26Southwell4fStd3rdTrue40.8 -0.3396.1+0.00
18 Dec 25Chelmsford City5fSlow6thTrue39.3 -0.3298.6+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.57slow2f+0.28fast3f+0.27par4f+0.02par5fledpar
Timed runs 2025-12-18 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, RESDEV KISSES) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SEA HER EXCEL (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, ROSIEISME DARLING, SOLAR INVINCIBLE, ELASHGAR) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, MISS MAGIC DRAGON, WHAT A TAHOO) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (54 today vs 46)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 62, 18pts above his recent average of 44.0NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.56 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“slowly away, mid-field, ridden and headway over 1f out, led final 1f, headed close home”
#6 BRAIN FREEZE (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 53 · Rhys Elliott / Michael Dods
MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
52.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 21.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
52.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.25% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.74)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 433rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 561stClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 595thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 4912thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 36
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BRAIN FREEZE (IRE)needs 72–73best 592025-07-25 · TFR 41 · 7f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-08-11 · TFR 14 · 7.23f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-08-23 · TFR 52 · 5.99f · Good · C52025-09-15 · TFR 31 · 6f · Soft · C62026-04-13 · TFR 36 · 6f · Std · C62026-05-07 · TFR 49 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-25 · TFR 59 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-17 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-23 · TFR 43 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C625 Jul 2523 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦31/27711.2%1.0212/7715.6%1.23
Coming back after 15 to 45 days47/5089.3%0.9117/14112.1%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=728/14918.8%1.134/478.5%0.63
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/28010.4%0.886/797.6%0.69
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 59 is below the ~72.0 the race demands
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 3/24 · at Ayr: A/E 0.76 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n139)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
97.2%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.78 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 Jun 26Beverley5fGd/Frm6thTrue41.3 +0.20100.6+0.45
17 Jun 26Ripon5fGood3rdTrue42.7 +0.5098.3—
25 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm1stFast early44.7 +0.3298.5+0.24
7 May 26Redcar5fGood5thTrue42.2 +0.0695.0+0.32
13 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd12thTrue40.5 -0.1599.4+0.09
15 Sep 25Thirsk6fSoft7thFast early40.4 -0.5191.7-0.04
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.38slow2f+0.32fast3f+0.24par4f+0.24par5f+0.91very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-15 to 2026-06-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BRASH (IRE) (read through LONG SHOT, NORTHERN TEMPEST) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs GOLDEN HAVANA (IRE) (read through RIFFA SPIRIT, BRAVO HOTEL, DATA FATA SECUTUS, FILLE UNIQUE) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SANDS OF SEVE (read through DATA FATA SECUTUS, MISS MAGIC DRAGON, WHAT A TAHOO) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs UNDER THE RADAR (IRE) (read through I'M DAN DARE, LOVE ALIVE, COSMIC CLARETS) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Prominent) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led, headed over 1f out, hung right final 1f, kept on”